A Cannabis Stock I Like Now

I moved my 420 Investor subscription service to Seeking Alpha after running it at a place I do not like for almost a decade in 2022, and I started writing about cannabis stocks again on Seeking Alpha. The cannabis sector has been in a bear market for 4 years now, and, not surprisingly, few seem to care about cannabis stocks.

When I relaunched 420 Investor, I was aware that we were in a bear market but hopeful that it would end soon. I remained negative until mid-2024. The market is a bit lower now, but the 3-year chart of the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index shows that the pace of the decline has slowed:

In 2025, the index has declined 5.8% so far. In 2024, it dropped 15.2% after falling 16.4% in 2023. While this seems like huge losses, especially in light of the big advance in overall stocks in 2023 and 2024, the decline pales in comparison to the stunning 70.4% plunge in 2022. Over the past 4 years, this index has declined now 93%.

Lower prices do not make stocks a buy all the time, but this factor can help. Cannabis stocks seem very cheap to me, but they could get cheaper. The industry faces many challenges, including 280E taxation and slowing growth. Many of the companies are struggling with debt.

As much as I like many cannabis stocks, I still do not like Canopy Growth (CGC). I wrote about this one at Seeking Alpha ahead of its fiscal Q3 report that was shared earlier this month, and I warned that it was still not a buy.

The stock was already down a ton at that time, but it has fallen a lot more since I published the article. On December 10th, I shared a review here of all 23 cannabis stocks I was covering for my subscribers, and this is what I said about CGC:

The stock then was $3.48, and is now $1.89, a plunge of 46%. I wrote my first Seeking Alpha article since 2022's return there to weekly articles on 1/23/23. Here is what I said:

CGC has dropped 93% since then. Despite the big drop, it has no appeal to me, as I explained ahead of its dismal fiscal FY25-Q3 report.

Another Canadian LP that I did not like was Tilray Brands (TLRY). I first wrote about it on Seeking Alpha almost 2 years ago:

The stock, then trading at $2.74, is now below $1.00 at $0.93. I had said that it should fall 50%, but it has declined 66%. The Global Cannabis Stock Index since then has dropped by almost 23%, so TLRY has vastly underperformed the cannabis sector.

I just issued an article that was published last night on Seeking Alpha, sharing how I am bullish on TLRY now. Is it the best cannabis stock ever? No! Will it be higher a year from now? Not sure! Here is what the summary of the article was:

So, I do like cannabis stocks, but I do not like all of them. My model portfolio is doing better than the index I aim to beat despite some drops in two large positions recently, and it is loaded with Tilray Brands at 11% currently. These shares were bought after its fiscal Q2 report.

As I said above, I don't think Tilray Brands is a great company. I am not impressed with their management team, which has done a lot of acquisitions. I am happy with the debt reduction (through share issuance), and I can appreciate how many investors with such massive losses are giving up or not interested. The stock has been very volatile, and I think it could life from the sub-$1 price. Here is the action over the last year:

I am sharing this here for two reasons. First, for anyone that likes to make money, I think that TLRY could bounce sharply. Second, perhaps readers will better appreciate that just because I am (or was) negative on a stock does not mean that I can't change. I think this is a good lesson for stock investors outside of cannabis too. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis should never lead stock pickers to being "permabulls" or "permabears" on a given stock.

I have written on cannabis stocks on this blog a bit, but I run a subscription service for those who want access to my insights. I also publish weekly at Seeking Alpha, though it limits free access. I think that their Premium Plan is worth it at $299 per year. I have an audience there that has free access to my Seeking Alpha Blog, and I write a weekly newsletter at New Cannabis Ventures that is free as well.